Perspectives on the Middle East by a Middle Eastern Expert

Segment 01 The Middle East continues to froth. The situation in Syria is deteriorating as rebels continue to fight against the al-Assad regime. The Bedouin tribes in Libya are not playing well together now that Ghaddaffi is gone and the potential for a civil war is looming. The military still pulls the power strings in Egypt so the Iran remains in the news with continuing threats, counter-threats, sanctions, nuclear inspections, and secret talks. In the midst of all of this sits Israel with longstanding issues with the Palestinians unresolved. My guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is Dr. Josef Olmert. Dr. Josef Olmert offers a rare combination of talents: a top Middle East scholar, former peace negotiator, political insider, published journalist and author, as well as a seasoned public speaker. He is currently an Adjunct Professor at USC-University of South Carolina. As Director of the Government Press Office and Advisor to then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir during the first Gulf War and the International Peace Conference in Madrid, he secured press relations for Israel with the Soviet Union and China, and represented the Prime Minister in numerous conferences and appearances in the United States, Great Britain, Australia, China, Russia, Japan and South Africa, among others. Segment 02 We talk about Syria. Dr. Olmert tells us that the Russians don't support the Assad regime, but do not like Western interference in the Middle East. Dr. Olmert thinks that the Russians are looking for common ground in the UN Security Council. Sanctions are working in Syria for two reasons. First, sanctions are cutting off access to foreign currency which is hurting the ability of the regime to raise money for military operations. Second, sanctions indicate regime isolation to the Syrian people. Although the Syrian rebel groups would like Western intervention, overt military operations in Syria would be extremely dangerous for the West. Dr. Olmert tells us that the Assad regime is doomed. However, the aftermath will be chaotic and violent. There are centuries of hatreds in Syria that will be unleashed without a strong civil society and security force in place. Fortunately, the leaders of the rebellion are aware of the sectarian conflicts between the Sunni, Shia, the Alawites, the Druze, the Christians, and numerous other ethnic and religious groups in Syria. The Alawites and the Sunnis have never lived in peace and therefore do not expect peace soon. I ask Dr. Olmert about the effect of the rebellion on Hamas. Dr. Olmert says that Khaled Maaschal is about to retire. Hamas will be forced to find a host country other than Syria. As a result, it will have to accept the rules of the host government. Dr. Olmert believes that most governments will not tolerate a policy of terrorism or violence from Hamas. Therefore, there may be a shifting of the balance of power in the months and the slight possibility of a movement towards moderation. Segment 03 I ask Dr. Olmert about his perspectives on Egypt. Dr. Omer says that the most optimistic outcome in Egypt will likely track the history of Turkey. That is, a civilian government will arise to control the military. However, in the short term the military will retain control of Egypt to block the rise of the Islamists and to ensure a balanced foreign policy. The military is very cautious about the Egyptian people and the protesters. The military recognizes that powerful forces are still in play that can cause destabilization of Egypt. Although Turkey is attempting to increase its influence in the region, it faces many problems on all of its borders. In addition, it has internal issues with ethnic minorities such as the Kurds and that and a large group of Alawites on the Syrian border. There is also a large group of Turkey Shia that have been restive Iran presents a difficult choice for Israel. Israel can attack Iran now and delay the onset of nuclear weapon development for a few years. The cost would be horrific and the upset in the region would be incalculable. However, Israel may prefer the chaos and consequences of a preemptive strike over the prospect of annihilation by nuclear attack from Iran. The Israeli calculus is strategic and is also based on history. The Israeli government and the people of Israel are well aware of the Holocaust and of historical persecution of Jews throughout history. This informs their decision-making in a deep and profound way. Segment 04 With respect to Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there will be no progress in 2012. The Arab world is fixated on the regime changes in the region. Thus, the Palestinian problem is seen as minor. The United States presidential election will put progress on talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority on hold until 2013. Nevertheless, a lot more can be done on the ground by the Israeli government to prepare for final talks. Dr. Olmert believes that Fayed, the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, is doing a good job and has earned the support of the Israeli government. The Palestinian bid for recognition in the United Nations was an abject failure. The Palestinians could not mobilize support from Muslim countries, and the effort died with a whimper. I ask Dr. Olmert what the Obama administration's major foreign-policy challenge will be in 2012. He tells us with one word: Iran.

• 01: Syria: The Assad Regime is Doomed-Dr. Josef Olmert
• 02: Syria: Chaos and Violence Will Follow Regime Change-Dr. Josef Olmert
• 03: Iran: Israel Has Little Choice But to Attack Iran-Dr. Josef Olmert
• 04: Israel-Palestinian Authority: Expect No Progress in 2012-Dr. Joseph Olmert

Perspectives of a CIA Counter-Terrorist Agent-Repeat

Perspectives of a CIA Counter-Terrorist Agent

Segment 01 John Kiriakou is a senior investigator in the United States Senate, focusing on the Middle East, South Asia, and international terrorism and a former intelligence and counterterrorism consultant for ABC News. Mr. Kiriakou served in the Central Intelligence Agency from 1990 until March 2004, first as an analyst, and later as a counterterrorism operations officer. As a senior operations officer, Mr. Kiriakou became chief of counterterrorist operations in Pakistan immediately following the September 11 attacks. This tour culminated in the March 2002 capture of Abu Zubaydah, al-Qa’ida’s third-ranking official, in a raid led by Mr. Kiriakou in Faisalabad, Pakistan. Upon his return from Pakistan, Mr. Kiriakou was named Executive Assistant to the CIA’s Deputy Director for Operations, where he was intimately involved in the planning for the Iraq war, and where he served as principle Iraq briefer for the Director of Central Intelligence. Mr. Kiriakou gained nationwide attention in December 2007 when he became the first CIA officer to acknowledge the waterboarding of al-Qa’ida prisoners in US custody. Segment 02 John tells us that he joined the CIA after being recruited by a graduate Prof. After his training was completed in 1990, he was assigned to watch Iraq and Kuwait, which at that time were considered backwater quiet assignments for rookies. Nine months later, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and John tells us his job became very interesting. In 1993, John was assigned to Bahrain, which was also supposed to be a quiet assignments. He arrived in Bahrain at the beginning of the Shia uprising as the human rights officer in the US Embassy. He wrote a report criticizing Bahrain's for human rights abuses. Segment 03 in July 2001, John was working on Greek terrorism. He was assigned to escort a group of Middle Eastern intelligence officers on a tour of the CIA and give them briefings. The chief CIA counter terrorist specialist, Cofer Black, came to the meeting, set down, and briefed the room on the knowledge of a terrible plan in process by Al Qaeda. He didn't know when or how Al Qaeda would attack and begged the intelligence officers for any information they might have. On September 11, 2001, John and Cofer were waiting for a car to take them to the White House for a meeting with Condoleezza Rice when the first airliner crashed into the World Trade Center. At that moment in the CIA, everyone knew it was located. John volunteered to go to Pakistan and was finally appointed as chief of counter – terrorism in Pakistan. His first job was to develop a plan to take down terrorist safe houses in Pakistan. Having never conducted such operations before, he started from scratch and developed the protocols for counter – terrorism activities in Pakistan. Segment 04 John tells us that in those days living in Pakistan, one has to accept that you will be sick all the time. It is a beautiful country and very exotic by Western standards. Today it is much more dangerous that Bennett was in the early 2000s. We talk about the problems of Pakistan. John says that there is no upside for the country, and things are just getting worse. Illiteracy is terribly high and the economy is terrible. He points out that in 1964, Pakistan and South Korea had an identical GDP. Today, South Korea's GDP is on par with any modern country, well Pakistan's GDP makes it one of the poorest nations in the world. Its internal politics are highly polarized, and a civil society has not been well developed because of numerous military coups. We talked briefly about the use of torture in interrogation. John tells us about the capture of Abu Zabadaya, the number three man in Al Qaeda at the time. This leads us to a discussion of the use of waterboarding as an interrogation technique. As an endnote, 24 hours after the show, John was arrested for allegedly disclosing the identities of CIA counterterrorism agents in his book and on media interviews. John has told me that he is confident that he will be exonerated of all charges and that this action is simply the government's attempt to intimidate him and others from telling the truth.

• 01: Terrorism:The Education of a Counter-Terrorism Agent-John Kiriakou
• 02: MIddle East: In the Hot Seat When Iraq Invades Kuwait-John Kiriakou
• 03: 9/11: We Knew It Was al Queda-John Kiriakou
• 04: Pakistan: The Take-Down of Al Queda's No. 3 Man-John Kiriakou

Iran Threats and Bluster-Repeat

Iran Threats and Bluster

Segment 01 On this edition of The Doug Noll Show, we talk about Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and how the United States and the West should respond. My guest is Paul Heroux. Paul previously lived and worked in the Middle East and was a senior analyst at the Institute for Defense and Disarment Studies. He has a masters in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a Master's from the Harvard School of Government. Paul can be reached at PaulHeroux.MPA@gmail.com.  After the 9/11 attacks, Paul tells us that he wanted to understand the Middle East. He therefore began to study and work on Middle Eastern issues. I ask Paul about the effect of sanctions on Iran, stating that, in my view, sanctions don't work. Paul agrees, saying that sanctions don't work the way we think or want them to. In the case of Iran, when Iran is pushed, it pushes back. Thus, sanctions on Iran's central bank will have unintended consequences. One of those consequences could be a sharp decrease in the output of Iranian oil unless the Saudi's increase output. Right now, the sanctions are causing a run on Iran banks and its currency value is plummeting. Doug comments on Iran's increased intransigence he and asks if this will push the Iranians into a miscalculated military adventure. Segment 02 Paul says that Iran is not worried about the US military. It's overconfidence may lead it to a mistaken decision to take military action. Paul believes that President Ahmadinejad is smart and savvy. Although his statements are provocative, they are usually for internal consumption to shore up political support for his presidency. Iran is banking on a time when the US will not be flexing its muscle in the Middle East. It also expects China to step in at some point and stop the US. With the Iranian politically lead to not understand is that China has its own internal challenges that make occluded from interfering with the US projection of force in the region. Segment 03 Paul and I talked about the concern around Iran nuclear weaponization. Paul says that the concern varies and is dependent upon one's relationship with Iran. The further from Iran you are, the less concern you might have. A preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would not snuff out its nuclear program. Iran has developed a knowledge base of nuclear weaponization that could simply be rebuilt. In fact, a preemptive strike is likely to justify further nuclear development by Iran. Doug asks Paul about a small group of Iranian clerics who have apocalyptic visions of the coming of the ninth Mahji. Paul is heard of this theory but does not give it much credence because he believes the current political regime is self-preserving and cowardly. Segment 04 Doug asks Paul about his sense of what the Republican presidential candidates are saying with respect to Iran. Republican candidates say a lot about Iran because they need to say it. Some of them like Rick Santorum are irresponsible. There seems to be a streak in the Republican party that requires a hawkish attitude and an ideology of toughness. Apparently, the Republicans have not realized the toughness is expensive and doesn't work. In Paul's view, the US needs to adopt aggressive diplomacy no matter what. The Obama administration has extended overtures to Iran and North Korea. Although these overtures have been rebuffed, they should be continued. The ultimate solution will probably be to engage partners that can negotiate with Iran. In addition, Russia and China must be part of the Iranian solution.

• 01: Iran: Sanctions against Iran have unintended consequences-Paul Heroux
• 02: Iran: Iran's Over-Confidence is a Mistake-Paul Heroux
• 03: Iran: Iran Nuclear Weaponization Cannot Be Stopped by Preemptive Strikes-Paul Heroux
• 04: Iran: Aggressive Diplomacy with Willing Partners is the Key to Iran-Paul Heroux

Tunisia-The Beginning of the Arab Spring

Most everyone is aware that the Arab Spring began in Tunisia. Other than popular press reports, however, we know little about the background of the peaceful overthrow of an autocratic regime. We know less about the people and history. Likewise, we know less about Bahrain except perhaps that the autocratic government there brought in mercenaries to brutally suppress non-violent protests. My guest is Azadeh Shahshahani. Azahdeh was born in Iran and moved to the United States at age sixteen. She is currently the Director of the National Security/Immigrants' Rights Project at the ACLU of Georgia, is President-Elect of the National Lawyers Guild, and is Co-Chair of the American Bar Association Committee on the Rights of Immigrants (of the Individual Rights and Responsibilities Section). Azadeh was born three days after the Iranian revolution of 1979. As Azadeh grew up, she became infuriated with imperialism. This developed into a passion for law and human rights. Azadeh talks about her work with the ACLU of Georgia. Georgia has passed several anti-immigrant was and has permitted racial profiling. As a lawyer for the ACLU, she is fighting to have those laws overturned. In March 2011, Azadeh visited Tunisia as part of a delegation of lawyers invited by the Tunisian Bar Association. Her purpose was to study human rights violations and the role of the United States in supporting the autocratic regime of Ben Ali. During her week-long visit, she tells us she met many people from many different layers of society. The US support for the Ben Ali regime was based on Bush's war on terror. Tunisia openly supported the United States and the West in the war on terror. The support gave it an excuse to pass a family-disguised law to further oppress human rights in Tunisia. Any opposition or dissident voices were imprisoned and tortured without fair trial. In exchange, the United States provided military, economic, and diplomatic support to the Ben Ali regime. I ask Azadeh about the current state of affairs in Tunisia. Azadeh tells us that the Tunisian people want to hold their government accountable. They seem to have no fear of any elected government and also seem willing to protect their hard-earned rights. Although the Ben Ali regime was ousted by the people of Tunisia, the economic and political elites still holds power. Whether they are willing to participate in a democratic political system remains to be seen. I ask Azadeh about the uprising in Bahrain. Azadeh tells us that people facing great oppression in this regime rose up and were brutally suppressed. There were significant human rights violations that were ignored by the mainstream media. The United States has a powerful strategic and military interest in the existing regime. The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain. Consequently, the US has no interest in regime change. We talk about how the US should balance the tension between respecting human rights and civil liberties and maintaining a secure strategic presence in the world. Azadeh believes that the US should respect human rights and civil liberties consistently. Otherwise it's hypocrisy will continue to infuriate the people of the Middle East.

• 01: Human Rights: The Journey of an Activist-Azadeh Shahshahani
• 02: Human Rights: The Work in Georgia-Azadeh Shahshahani
• 03: Arab Spring: Tunisia and Democracy-Azadeh Shahshahani
• 04: Arab Spring: US Complicity in Human Rights Abuses-Azadeh Shahshahani

Somalia: The Greatest Humanitarian Crisis of the 21st Century (So Far)

Segment 01 Sadia Ali Aden is a Human rights advocate and a freelance writer. Many of Sadia's articles on Somalia, Islam among others have been published by media groups around the world; namely Huffington Post, Middle East On-Line, Islam Online, Global Politician, Aljazeera Magazine, Foreign Policy Forum, Media Monitor Network, Scoop, Newsblaze and Worldpress and has been on NPR, BBC, VOA, and Aljazeera discussing on the Somali/Muslim issues . Sadia is the co-founder of Adar Foundation, Somali Diaspora Youth and the founder of Diaspora voice.  She is also an active member of the Somali American community of Washington D.C Metropolitan area.  Sadia arrived in the United States before the war in Somalia started. Her father was killed when she was eight years old and she was raised by her mother and sisters in Somalia. When the conflict erupted in 1991, Saudia was stuck in the United States. She attended high school and college with the intention of going to medical school. She ended up working to support her family both in the United States and in Somalia. Somalia is strategically located at the northeast part of the African continent in what is known as the Worn-out Africa. It has the longest coastline in Africa facing the approaches to the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal and further the Arabian Gulf and and the Straits of Hormuz. Somalia was a victim of the Cold War and collapsed as a state in 1991. The United States along with United Nations attempted to provide humanitarian and military aid in 1993 which led to the famous Blackhawk Down incident in Mogadishu. As a result of that disaster, the United States withdrew all support from Somalia and was essentially ignored until the terrorist attacks in United States on 9/11. The United Nations withdrew from Somalia in 1995. Segment 02 After 9/11, the United States reengaged in Somalia in an unhealthy way. The CIA partnered with various warlords in 2006 to oppose the incursion of Arcata terrorists basing themselves in Somalia. This alliance did not sit well with the Somali people because the warlords were intensely hated. As a result, America became disliked and the Somalis began to push back. There were 11 clan-based courts settling internal clan disputes. This was the only authority within the country that had any functionality at all. The 11 courts joined in to a group called the Union of Islamist Courts and formed a military arm called Shabaab. This arrangement brought peace to Somalia for about six months until Ethiopia invaded. Ethiopia and Somalia have been long-time enemies, resulting from the original division of Africa by the Europeans in the 19th century. Ethiopia's invasion, with the tacit support of the United States, crushed the UIC and drove the Shabaab to power. The conflict today is complex and driven by many elements, including ethnic and clan-based differences, moving water shortages, and interference by neighboring nations. None of Somalia's neighbors have an interest in a stable, peaceful Somalia. Segment 03 Eastern Africa suffered a severe drought in 2006 which was followed by another drought in 2010. The current tragedy has been in the making for many years. Some items and outside NGOs have been warning the world of the impending humanitarian disaster. $50 billion for Somalia sits in Kenya unused because of the political instability and violence in the country. This has further exacerbated the famine because funds cannot be used to alleviate the suffering. The largest refugee camp in the world is in northeast Kenya on the Somali border. It agencies are suspending aid to the camp because of increased violence between Kenyan security forces and Shabaab militants. In the meantime, the Republic of Turkey has come to Somalia's aid. Turkey is rebuilding the Mogadishu airport with the intention of resuming flights from Turkey to Somalia in 2012. Great Britain says it will open an embassy as result of the work of Turkey. Turkey is also interested in developing a sustainable economy in Somalia. Segment 04 Doug asks Saudia what is needed for peace in Somalia. The Somali people must be involved in a national dialogue. The UN has spent $60 million drafting a constitution that would Balkanize Somalia. The constitution does not have the support of the Somali people and will fail if it is implemented. The Somali people have traditional peacebuilding methods and processes that would allow them to sit across the table from each other and work out their differences. Members of the Somali diaspora could facilitate dialogues in this traditional way. United States policy is to thwart Shabaab by meeting violence with violence.Shabaab is formed by young men from all the various clans who have no other source of security. They can be recalled by the clans if they are provided with food, shelter, education and hope. That would spell the end of Shabaab and the beginning of peace in Somalia

• 01: World Peace: The Journey of a Somali-American-Sadia Ali Aden
• 02: Somalia: A Brief History of A Modern Civil War-Sadia Ali Aden
• 03: Somalia: Drought to Famine to Disaster-Sadia Ali Aden
• 04: Somalia: Prospects for Peace-Sadia Ali Aden

Kill the Messenger--How the Media Shapes War and Peace-Repeat

Kill the Messenger--How the Media Shapes War and Peace

• 01: Media:How Framing Changes Stories-Maria Armoudian
• 02: Media: The Decline of Critical Thinking in Journalism-Maria Armoudian
• 03: War Journalism: How the Media Shaped the Rwandan Genocide-Maria Armoudian
• 04: Climate Change: Why the Climate Change Conference is not considered news-Maria Armoudian

Climate Change--No One is Listening

• 01: Climate Change: Adovcating for a Comprehensive Treaty-Alexandra Stark
• 02: Climate Change: The COP 17 Conference in Durban-Alexandra Stark
• 03: Climate Change: The Competing Interests in Climate Treaty Negotiations-Alex Stark
• 04: Climate Change: The Power of Youth-Alex Stark